The takeover battle has never been so fierce.
The media world is changing at a tremendous pace. Sometimes that sounds like a cliché, but it is undeniably true. World Screen News, an excellent source of information for many media experts, only once listed what happened in our world in 2018. It is too much to mention and of an unimaginable scale. There is no doubt: the media world has never been so fundamentally in flux.
First of all, take the unimaginable growth of streaming video. It has taken a considerable number of years for video-on-demand to break through, but now that technological barriers are increasingly disappearing, growth is unstoppable. Growth rates of 60% and more are measured in some parts of the world. Netflix and Amazon are leading the way, but there are an incredible number of new players who want to claim a share of the market. First of all, these are the existing broadcasters and pay-TV operators, but also all kinds of niche players that focus on a smaller market segment. However, the unprecedented possibilities of streaming video mainly mean that the FANGA companies are marching into our world at great speed.
Under this pressure, the existing players in the media world are switching to an old strategy: to achieve as much economies of scale as possible. The takeover battle has never been so fierce. AT&T acquired Warner, Disney acquired much of Fox's assets, Comcast acquired Sky. These mega transactions, each more than $ 50 billion (!), Are the tip of a big iceberg. It does not seem unlikely that this trend will continue, although the impending Brexit and the fragile world economy could of course throw a spanner in the works. But one big deal already seems to be coming: after the fall of obstacle Les Moonves, CBS and Viacom could indeed merge this year.
Because new and old players strive for the favor of the viewer (rather read in the current era consumer), content providers are rubbing their hands. It is all hands on deck for producers, which is why this part of our industry focuses less on acquisitions: none of the larger players ventured into the tasty snack called Shine Endemol. The focus is entirely on finding and developing the right stories and the right talent to write and produce those stories. Not to mention the acting talent that these productions must credibly present to the viewer.
Finally, cable companies and telcos are increasingly focusing on a mix of distribution, exploitation and content. The huge deals from AT&T and Comcast have already been mentioned, but other companies have also been involved. BT is in a frenetic battle over sports rights with Sky in the UK, Swedish Telia acquired Bonnier Broadcasting and giants like Deutsche Telekom and Telefonica continued to invest in content exploitation and production. Apparently, people in all management offices have come to the conclusion that as a (media) company you can only be successful as a fully integrated party (which controls as many parts of the value chain as possible). John de Mol does this "in miniature" in the Netherlands.
Overlooking this battlefield, the big question is of course what 2019 will bring us. Many strategists overlook this, especially given the uncertain times in the world economy as a result of slow growth, trade wars and Brexit. It is clear to media companies that a standstill means a considerable decline. There are still a number of major acquisitions on the way, streaming video continues to grow rapidly and the first providers in this field are going under. A major shake-out / consolidation awaits us in the coming years, starting in 2019.
Do you remember that video from 2006 featuring YouTube founders Chad Hurley and Steve Chen? The two young men addressed the 'YouTube Community' with promises of continued innovation and product development. But after just two and a half minutes, they could no longer keep a straight face. They had just sold their barely 18-month-old, loss-making company to Google for a staggering 1.65 billion dollars.
At the time, many thought Google had lost its mind for paying such an astronomical amount for a fledgling startup. But it quickly became clear that the tech giant had placed a calculated bet. The modest YouTube maintained its position as the market leader in online video, while Google's own platform never gained traction. The team at Google had already recognized that video would become the next killer application on the Internet. Instead of competing, they acquired the persistent rival that was standing in their way, regardless of the cost. The rest is history. According to social media expert Jonatan de Boer, YouTube now generates over 36 billion dollars in annual revenue.
Today, YouTube is unquestionably the largest video platform in the world. Monthly views are measured in the trillions, and the number of active channels approaches 5 million. What stands out is that, according to a recent report by Evan Shapiro, nearly 95 percent of all views come from just the top 10 channels. What began as a platform for short-form, user-generated content is now evolving into a wide-reaching video ecosystem. And increasingly, major media companies are embracing it.
Just a decade ago, traditional broadcasters were extremely hesitant to publish content on YouTube. The Dutch public broadcaster NPO offers a striking example. Acting under the leadership of then-chairman Henk Hagoort, the organization tightly controlled content distribution and explicitly forbade its affiliated broadcasters from using YouTube.
The situation today could not be more different. YouTube is now seen as an ideal platform to promote television programs. An additional reason has emerged as well. YouTube attracts a predominantly younger audience, which gives media companies a valuable opportunity to connect with a harder-to-reach demographic.
Channel 4 in the United Kingdom was among the first broadcasters to recognize the platform’s potential. After a test phase, they decided last year to start publishing long-form content on YouTube. They were also allowed to manage advertising on their Channel 4 YouTube page themselves, with a share of the revenue naturally going to Google.
This created a win-win situation. The broadcaster gained additional reach. YouTube gained more compelling content for its viewers. And both parties benefited from the resulting revenue. YouTube is now often watched on television screens, competes directly with Netflix, and even commands more viewing time in the United States, with 12 percent compared to Netflix’s 7.5 percent. ITV has already followed with a similar deal, and it seems inevitable that others will join. All of this continues to strengthen YouTube's already dominant position: in just 20 years, the once awkward underdog has grown into a mighty media giant.
Broadcast Magazine celebrates its 35th anniversary, a milestone prominently featured in this edition of the media trade magazine. It has evolved into a genuine glossy, allowing it to stand toe-to-toe with international counterparts. Indeed, media trade magazines thrive abroad as well. Each has its own distinct identity, as the trade journals that appear internationally are remarkably diverse. For anyone following global developments in the media industry, they are all well worth reading.
The mother of all media trade magazines is the American Variety. Its first edition was published as early as 1905. In 1930, Variety faced competition from a newcomer, the Hollywood Reporter. These publications remain indispensable resources for anyone wishing to closely follow developments in the American media industry. Interestingly, ownership of these magazines frequently changed hands, suggesting they were seen as valuable, easily tradable assets. Even private equity firms have invested in them at various stages.
In 1973, the UK saw the launch of its first media trade magazine, simply named Broadcast. This monthly publication closely follows developments in the British market and has successfully expanded into a digital platform. Since 2003, the UK's audiovisual content industry has experienced rapid growth, which Broadcast has thoroughly documented
This year, the publisher took a bold step by deciding to expand internationally. Broadcast International focuses primarily on developments in the world of audiovisual content production, quickly establishing itself as a noteworthy source of insider news.
For those interested in the French market, Écran Total is indispensable. It is also a monthly magazine, covering the film and entertainment sectors broadly. True to French tradition, it devotes significant attention to the ‘Exception Française’, the protection of the French film industry. In a way, it represents the ugly duckling among the international trade journals, as the French television world remains relatively closed off, and Écran Total reflects that philosophy.
Then there are the Germans: they truly have their act together. DWDL is an in-depth online platform, filled with excellent articles produced by a team of journalists specializing in the media sector. For those who want to understand how things work in the large German media market, it is an indispensable source, offering daily, detailed articles. Last year, DWDL garnered widespread attention with minute-by-minute reporting of the ProSieben Sat.1 Annual General Meeting, in which our Dutch colleague Bert Habets played a leading role. A clear example of how a media trade magazine can evolve into a highly relevant online platform for our industry.
Remarkably, smaller European countries lack a medium comparable to BM. Broadcast Magazine — now smartly rebranded as BM, since it long ago outgrew its original focus solely on broadcasting — is a successful example, thanks to the entrepreneurial drive of Rob Klap and the tireless editorial leadership of Jeroen te Nuijl. It demonstrates yet again the significant role the Netherlands plays in the international audiovisual content industry.
Sports rights holders are rubbing their hands in anticipation, because the value of sports rights is rising sharply. After the huge price hikes of the previous decade, there had been somewhat of a stagnation in recent years. The French Ligue 1 even saw the value of its new multi-year deal drop. But now, a new group of deep-pocketed interested parties has emerged: the streamers are about to make major investments in sports. Specialized sports streamers like DAZN have been active for several years. Market leader Netflix, after broadcasting the Paul/Tyson match, has also discovered the power of live sports. YouTube (more on that in my next column) invested in American football earlier. According to figures from Ampère Analysis, streamers will spend over 12 billion dollars on sports rights this year.
The investments that British-Ukrainian entrepreneur Sir Lech Blavatnik has been making for years are starting to bear some fruit. His company DAZN is growing rapidly and attracting one investor after another. The company is running at a significant loss and has a massive need for financing. This month, according to insiders, the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund paid a billion dollars for less than 10% of the company. With the promise that he’s building the Netflix of sports, Blavatnik has managed to convince investors. As a result, the company has become a tough competitor to pay-TV channels like Sky and is squeezing many public and commercial TV broadcasters even further.
Entertainment streamers, meanwhile, also see the value of sports—and not just for attracting new subscribers. Keeping churn (the cancellation of subscriptions) under control is at least as important from a strategic standpoint. Therefore, Netflix is going to invest in American football. Less dominant players like Peacock and Paramount+ are also heading in that direction—a development that has the National Football League (NFL) rubbing its hands in anticipation. We also know that trends in the U.S. sooner or later make their way to Europe, which will undoubtedly mean that here, too, the value of sports rights will shoot through the roof.
It’s clear, however, that this hasn’t been all smooth sailing. DAZN incurred the wrath of German consumer organizations by hiking its prices for the Bundesliga and the Champions League a little too enthusiastically. Technical problems in Italy plagued the sports streamer, and even Netflix underestimated the impact of a mega-event like the Paul/Tyson match. Those are temporary problems, though—ones that will disappear as streaming technology advances and industry expertise continues to evolve.
Private equity firms see these developments as well and are becoming more and more interested in sports organizations. And here again, the NFL is at the center of attention. After an extensive study, the league concluded that private equity firms (at least to a limited extent, for now) can invest in NFL clubs. Sports are increasingly being valued for what they’re truly worth, because there’s still so much potential in them—due in no small part to streamers taking an interest in the rights. In other words: sports are streaming ahead!