Has Apple fallen asleep?

August 11, 2022

Has Apple fallen asleep?

August 11, 2022
Most media companies have long since woken up and embraced online video. Videoland, NPOStart, Streamz, Britbox, Disney +, HBO Max, Peacock, Joyn, Discovery+: so many initiatives have seen daylight.

Big Tech has turned the media industry upside down. Netflix and Amazon have brought about an unprecedented change in consumer viewing habits in long form content, after Google did the same with its YouTube on short form video. The share of streaming in consumer viewing time has grown at an alarming rate, and it may not be long before the tipping point is reached: consumers will inevitably watch more video online than on television.

Most media companies have long since woken up and embraced online video. Videoland, NPOStart, Streamz, Britbox, Disney +, HBO Max, Peacock, Joyn, Discovery+: so many initiatives have seen daylight. Disney's success is resounding and it looks like it could overtake market leader Netflix in the long run. Let's face it: the combination of the Fox and Disney catalog, the addition of Starz and so on, offer a wide catalog for the whole family. Disney even went so far as to put a large number of linear channels in the garbage bin.

Of the Big Tech companies, Amazon is the most adept at online video activities. It cleverly selects the territories where it wants to be present, packs the video offering into its Prime subscription service and also makes a number of very relevant acquisitions.  It gives Amazon the market leadership in Germany and strengthens its presence in the Netherlands. The acquisition of MGM was a surprising step and consumers will see the effects of it this summer: the entire James Bond catalog is being marketed smartly and will undoubtedly generate a series of new Prime subscribers.

In all that violence, one global player remains remarkably silent: Apple’s content businessis negligible. Apple TV+ does not appeal at all to the spoiled video consumer. The Morning Show, announced with much fanfare, is hardly watched outside the US and the adjacent video offering is also of poor quality.  Are they asleep in Cupertino?  I cannot imagine that, because Apple is an excellently run company. Apparently, however, management lacks knowledge in the field of content and therefore there seems to be only one logical stepforward. The analogy arises with Google, which tried to compete in online video with Google Video 15 years ago, but remained in a disappointing second position. The solution? The acquisition of market leader (and at the moment fiercely loss making) YouTube.

I had actually expected years ago that Apple had acquired Netflix, but after the unprecedented rally of the Netflix share (the price reached a peak of more than 700 dollars last year), that thought seemed unfeasible. But Netflix has landed back on earth and the stock is hovering around $170: surely the policymakers in Cupertino could think of this enticing thought again? The financing of this does not seem to be a problem for Apple. Or will they find the risk of investing in content too great and continue to navigate the current, extraordinarily successful business model (selling hardware with insanely easy software and wonderful user interface)?

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123 million Americans watched the Super Bowl live on February 12th. This unbelievable number once again marks the power of live sports broadcasts on television, a dream marriage for every advertiser. Those who want to reach a broad mass audience gladly choose the Sports-TV combination. This year will be a fantastic year for broadcasters who are (partly) dependent on advertising for financing. The European Football Championship, the Olympic Games, and a series of other great events; TV advertising will break records this year. The old medium is not doing so bad after all.

It's no wonder that the value of sports rights keeps increasing. The English Premier League remains the unrivaled frontrunner in this regard. In December, the new deal for domestic rights was sealed for the unbelievable amount of nearly 8 billion euros, an increase of 30% compared to the previous 3-year deal. Several pay TV channels have become entirely dependent on top football, know that the streamers will enter the battle and have no option but to engage. Of course, this will lead to accidents if policies remain unchanged. An intelligent solution has been found in the Netherlands, where long-term, joint exploitation of football rights leads to a win-win situation.

At the beginning of this year, two notable new initiatives emerged elsewhere. First off, a very remarkable deal in the United States came about between players who were fierce competitors until recently. In the United States, sports on TV belonged to ESPN. In its heyday, as many as 100 million Americans subscribed to ESPN 1 and 2, and sports rights were long-term deals, ensuring no surprises on the cost side would emerge. Shareholder Disney was, of course, delighted with this simple but highly effective business model for years. However, in recent years, concrete decay has been detected: cord-cutting undermined the revenue model, and alternative programming from streamers did the rest. Disney's own streaming service ESPN+ couldn't fill the gap.

Under pressure, everything becomes fluid, as became evident again at the beginning of the year. The three sworn archenemies Fox, Disney, and Warner Bros. Discovery are joining forces to launch a sports streaming platform. This is not just a deal where a common front door is created, behind which all services are separately served. It seems to become truly one platform where all content is available at one common price. The name for the new platform has not yet been announced, but it is possible that old brands like ESPN will make way for a new one.

A more modest initiative emerges in Europe. The EBU (European Broadcasting Union) starts Eurovision Sport, making intelligent use of a well-known brand. Here too, it's about one platform, on which all swimming, athletics, and gymnastics should be visible. Of course, this initiative pales in comparison to what's happening in the US, but it's innovative nonetheless. The 'old media' are renewing themselves under pressure from consumer demand and the undoubtedly impending attack from the major streamers.

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2024 Predictions

A new year is upon us. What are the major trends for the next 12 months, and what can we expect, not only in the Netherlands but also internationally? For those wanting to know what lies ahead in the longer term, it is best to turn to Evan Shapiro, the leading futurist in the American TMT sector. According to Shapiro, the valuations of Big Tech have once again risen to such incredible heights (for example, Apple and Microsoft are now worth over 3 trillion (!)  each), that it's only a matter of time before Big Tech will truly infiltrate and dominate the media world, in pursuit of advertising revenue. This invasion is expected to unfold through sports rights. While it hasn't reached the Netherlands yet, what happens in the US will undoubtedly make its way to us. The most captivating sports rights deal for us this year revolves around Formula 1, and it seems logical that this will be a battle between Ziggo and RTL. Amazon Prime will not join this battle for now.

Prediction 2: After a year of rest, media companies are actively pursuing economies of scale again. The initial talks between Warner Bros Discovery and Paramount have already taken place. It will be a busy year for dealmakers. As mentioned, Big Tech casts its shadow ahead, leading traditional media concerns (which are comparatively negligible in size) to strengthen their defenses. Big Tech might outpace them: the acquisition of a 'cheaply valued' company like Paramount is small matter for the new rulers. Many significant deals are on the horizon this year, surpassing the magnitude of the last major deal - the merger between Warner Bros and Discovery.

Prediction 3: The use of data will play an even larger role in the media world. The measurement of viewership and listenership figures has seen a revamp this year, and we can expect many more changes. The direction it will take is uncertain; currently, media companies benefit from various less objective measurement systems, but in the long run, this will change due to the arrival of Big Tech. In this domain, a real revolution is on the horizon.

Prediction 4: Public broadcasters will retain their value in Europe. Although we can anticipate the new coalition in the Netherlands will reduce the funding for the public broadcasting system, public broadcasters in our neighboring countries (and here as well) will survive. The required changes are enormous; just take a glance at the funding system of the BBC, which is under intense pressure. Nevertheless, the public broadcaster is definitely not heading for the slaughterhouse, contrary to the notion of many that its days are numbered.

The final prediction concerns the world of sports rights. In the past year, Serie A in Italy struggled to sell its rights. My prediction is that, also due to Big Tech's interest, sports rights prices will soar again. Excellent news for sports rights holders!

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