You may wonder at the number in this heading whether it is about John de Mol's latest earn-out or about the shrinking budget of the Dutch public broadcaster. The interesting thing is that it is not about money but about the number of SVOD subscribers worldwide. Before the summer recess, a large number of research agencies will provide the latest data on the growth of the global audiovisual market, including perspectives for the next 5 years. Digital TV Research came up with a new sum and predicted that by 2024 1 billion people will use SVOD. What an incredible growth market!

The researchers made predictions about the number of users per VOD provider and came to the conclusion that Netflix would reach a market share of just under 25%. Amazon would remain a solid second at around 15%, while Disney would grow from 0 to 75 million users and eventually achieve a global market share of 10%. Those figures are backed up by the excellent London-based research firm Ampère, which reported this week that 22% of Americans will subscribe to Disney +. If we subtract China (which is more of a "local" market served by "local" players, who "serve" only "300 million people), there remains a market for over 200 million" other "suppliers. There are of course Americans such as Comcast / Universal and AT & T / Warner with mixed AVOD and SVOD models, but also many local players who serve their own market.

It has been argued so often here: for broadcasters, who generally operate in one country, it is very important to build a significant VOD business. AVOD is usually available in-house, but because it is so important to build a direct relationship with the consumer / viewer, an SVOD operation becomes essential. RTL Nederland realized this early on, the acquisition of Videoland is still etched in our memory and it seems to be heading in the right direction with this proposition. Other good examples are Nine in Australia, which has a very successful service in house with Stan. But otherwise developments are going too slowly.

This is all the more convincing after the analyzes published by PwC in its annual media outlook. The television advertising market is going to crumble and may even shrink worldwide in the coming years. Broadcasters can therefore only achieve growth from new business ventures and VOD is of course the most attractive opportunity. Developing multiple propositions per country will be difficult, because consumers are only willing to take out a few subscriptions and not an infinitely long series. Collaboration is essential and that seems to be difficult to achieve: Britbox of ITV and BBC is struggling to get off the ground, the frustrations among the participants in the French Salto are increasing and NL Ziet in the Netherlands also seems more and more like a stillborn child. .

Pro Sieben Sat1 and Discovery do put in the pass and have already brought ZDF on board. The new Joyn must become the German alternative to Netflix and Amazon. Because there is still plenty of growth in this market segment, this new service will soon gain momentum, while RTL Germany chooses a completely different course and builds its own SVOD service. In short, it is a true spectacle in this large growth market. Different choices are made in each territory and new players emerge. The FANGAs will play their own worldwide game here, but there will be plenty of room left for local players. They have to act in the short term to attract some of those more than 200 million potential users.

‍